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US, France, China, Russia, Britain officially....
Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea |
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| Use of micro organisms and poisons in weapons |
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| Employ the toxic properties of chemicals |
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| Kill by burning lungs, causing throat to constrict (Chlorine gas) |
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| Cause severe pain and burning, usually too skin (Mustard gas) |
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| Cause the loss of muscle control, respiratory failure, and death (sarin gas, VX) |
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| Dirty bomb, attach various radioactive materials to a conventional bomb |
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| Traditional Non-Proliferation |
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| Prevent states from proliferating these weapons in the first place (Use diplomacy,regimes, export controls, etc) |
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| Methods of "rolling back" proliferation.....regime change, finding ways to inspect |
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| Weapons are actually used,emergency management, must have mechanisms for distributing medical treatment |
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| 3 pillars of US Strategy against Nukes |
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| Counter Proliferation, Traditional Non-Proliferation, Consequence Management |
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| Plutonium 239, Uranium 235 |
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| Difference between HEU and LEU |
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| If you have concentrations of U235 above 26%, it is considered HEU, and is able to be used in a nuclear weapon |
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| Uses natural uranium as a fuel,and produces weapons grade plutonium |
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| Uses LEU or HEU, produces non weapons grade plutonium |
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| Energy released when you fuse atoms together, releases vastly more energy than when you split them |
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| "Trinity" Test, July 1945, White Sands New Mexico |
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1st bomb: Little Boy (Gun) Hiroshima
2nd bomb: Fat Man (Implosion) Nagasaki |
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| Strategic Arms Limitation Talks: Put cap on strategic arsenals of US and Soviets, included ABM Treaty (No missile defense system) |
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| Carter withdrew after soviets invaded Afghanistan |
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| Strategic Arms Reduction Talks: Limited US and Russia to 6k strategic warheads, and 1600 delivery vehicles |
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| Reduction of strategic arsenals to 3500, eliminated all MIRVS. Considered dead, US made missile defense system, Russia backed out |
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| Negotiations fell through |
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| Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty: Called for reduction of offensive strategic weapons to 1700-2200 |
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| ten year time scale, after 2012 no restraingts, only requires de alerting of weapons |
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| Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty: Binding in 1970, Non states can't go nuclar, nuclear states can't assist non state with going nuclear, nuclear states must assist non-states with peaceful nuclear power, nuclear states musst make an effort towards total disarmament |
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| Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Forbids any testing of a nuclear weapon, able to verify by tracking seismic activity... |
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| US Signed treaty, butt was rejected in the Senate in 1999, republicans were worried about the long-term viability of nuclear weapons....didnt want to lose the ability to test them |
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| Included a list of export items which exported would trigger the requirement of full scope safe guards on these technologies |
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| Limited the exports to states, regardless of whether they were NPT orr not. |
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| Problems with export-control regimes |
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| Voluntary agreements, global economy means you can dodge the export controls by going through different countries |
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| Biological Weapons Convention: Outlaws biological weapons.... |
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| No enforcement, or verification meachanisms to ennsure compliance |
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| Reasons for not strengthening BWC |
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Definition
| Pharmaceutical industries, real concern about industrial espionage, it is also VERY easy to conceal a bioweapons program |
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| Nuclear proliferation can increase stability....the more countries with nukes the more cautious they willbe |
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| Leading representatives of the realists |
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| Pre-Breakup Soviet Security |
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| Guns, Guards, and gates....closed borders to country and nuclear cities, very intricate |
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| Problems with security post collapse (Russia) |
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| 1000's of nukes left in newly created countries, poor economy (no money to pay workers or guards), Open orders lead to black market, problems with accounting, fear off labor camps lead to fudging of numbers |
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| Cooperative Threat Reduction: Intent was to help Russia aquire weapons after breakup....improved security at facilities and helped destroy missile fuel and stuff |
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| Material Protection Control + Accounting Program: Lab to lab, Focused on security for fissile materials |
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| The assumption of the optimists that states act as unitary rational actors |
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| 3 requirements for deterrence (Optimist Position) |
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Definition
1. Survivable forces
2. Command and control over Nukes (To prevent accidents)
3. Weapons cannot be configured in such a way that could allow for early firing against false alarms |
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| Reasons was will be less likely according to optimists (4) |
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Definition
1. Stakes are higher
2. States act w/ great care if costs are high
3. Nukes contribute more to security than land does
4. Deterrence makes attackers think twice |
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| Fundamental assumption of optimism |
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Definition
| States act as unitary rationale actors that always see what is in their interests |
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| Standard Operating Procedures don't usually choose the most satisfying solution, they usually choose the first minimally satisfying solution |
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| Optimist and Pessimist Position on terrorists |
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Definition
OptimistsL Terrorism isn't much consideration, becaues nukes are beyond terrorists capabilities
Pessimist: Bin laden says aquiring nuke is religious duty, deterrence doesn't work among terrorists |
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| Basic security system of the soviet union pre collapge |
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Definition
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| Problems with Soviet Security after collapse |
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Definition
1. 1000's of nukes left in newly created countries
2. Poor economy- no money to pay guards or workers at nuclear facilities
3. Greater opportunities for theft due to lack of funds, security deteriorated
4. Problems with accounting systems
5. Fear of labor camps made workers fudge production #'s
6. Black market created |
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Term
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Definition
N. Korea's primary facility.
Includes the entire fuel cycle for producing the fuel for reactors and producing weapons grade plutonium.
1. Heavy water reactor
2. Unfinished 50 megawatt reactor
3. Fuel fabrication complex
4. Plutonium separation facility
5. Storage sites for nuclear waste |
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Definition
| 200 megawatt nuclear reactor under construction. |
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| What is NK believed to have? And how did we find this out? |
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Definition
| Uranium enrichment facilities from Pakistan, in exchange for missiles. We found out by infiltrating the AQ Khan smuggling ring |
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| When did NK join the NPT? |
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Definition
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| May 1992 IAEA Went into NK and conducted 6 inspections. THey found..... |
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| NK had removed some of their fissile materials. |
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| What was the NK crisis prior to the agreed framework? |
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Definition
| IAEA discovered NK had withrawn a lot of plutonium. NK lied about it, NK threatened to withdraw from NPT, NK said they would withdraw enough materals for nuclear weapons, US made it known they were preparing a strike on NK's nuclear facilities. |
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| North Korea would freeze the operation of havey water facilities, and halt construction of the 50 megawatt and 200 megawatt facilities. Would allow IAEA to inspect. In return, US, Japan, SK, provide 2 light water reactors, would oversee construction of these. |
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| October 2002 NK was found to be in violation of their agreement |
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Definition
| They were found to be importing and presumable putting into place Uranium enrichment facilities. |
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| Why didn't US want bilateral talks? |
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Definition
It basically makes NK equal, giving NK legitimacy.
if you bring in a number of parties the dynamic changes, it becomes a number of parties negotiating with the troublemakers and other countries can back up what happened |
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| US, China, NK, SK, Japan, Russia. Never really accomplished anything |
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| 2007 NK agreed to concrete steps to disarmament in the 6 party talks |
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| 1. Would disable main nuclear facilities for 1 million tons of energy assistance and other aid |
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| North Korea turned over 18,000 pages of documents in 2008.... |
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| Doesn't include any details on suspected uranium enrichment program. Doesn't address proliferation to Syria and Libya, Fail to give any account to the nuclear weapons that NK already produced, or an account of the actual plutonium that they have stored |
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| Core concerns with NK aquiring nuclear weapons |
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Definition
1. US will have less influence in the region
2. NK can blackmail the world very well
3. THey have a history of selling their military technologies
4. The regime will implode within 20 yrs. so what happens to nukes? |
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| Israeli jets bombed a mysterious facility known as Al-Kibar, located in Syria. Widely suspected to be an undeclared nuclear facility. US Intelligence: Photos and video claimed to demonstrate that these were nuclear facilities, and there was a connection to NK. The reactors looked identical to NK reactors |
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| 1995, Aumzshen Rikio released serin gas on several lines of the tokyo subway, killing 12 and injuring 6000 more |
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| What are the incentives to develop CBW? |
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Definition
| Easy to produce, difficult to defend against, don't need to stockpile, can produce very quickly, many agents are contagious, |
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| Drawbacks for biological weapons |
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Definition
| Not immediately useful on the battlefield. Won't see the effects for several days |
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| Drawbacks for chemical weapons |
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Definition
| Dilute easily in the air, depend on wind conditions |
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| Military usefulness of bio weapons |
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Definition
| Could soften up targets/supply lines prior to an attack. Could udnermine ability to fight a war |
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| Military usefulness of chemical weapons |
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Definition
| Primarily useful in battlefield situations. Mustard gas, tear gas, etc |
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| Can CBW provide deterrence? |
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Definition
| They can, but they are unable to provide assured damage ahead of time |
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| Phases of a missile launch |
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Definition
Boost phase: Missile is launched, getting up to speed
Mid Phase: Warhead detaches from the fuselage of the missile, goes into outer space, and re enters the armosphere towards its target
Terminal Phase: descends, hits target |
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System to eliminate missiles in the boost phase. Can home in on the flames leaving the missile. Navy Based
Adv: Missile hasn't reached its peak speed
Dis: Like trying to shoot a bullet with a bullet |
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Definition
| Intended to target the missile inbetween the boost phase, can burn a hole into a missile and eliminate its fuel |
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| Ground based mid course defense |
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| Shooting missiles from land to intercept the warhead |
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| Targets the warhead as it is beginning its re entry to the atmosphere |
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| In 2001 the Pentagon called for a major revamping of US strategic systems.... |
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Definition
| Called for a new triad: Offense, Defense, and Support. |
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| Why has Russia been so opposed to our missile defense? |
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Definition
| They were in a position to reassert their political power and influence due to oil and other economic breakthroughs |
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